Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

Activities will begin Tuesday morning when July's Housing Starts report is posted at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us a little insight about the new home portion of the housing sector and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and its’ results are the only headlines of the day. Analysts expect the report to show a small decline in new home groundbreakings. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would hint at a weaker than expected new home portion of the housing sector.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Wednesday lacks the release of any relevant economic data, but we get a couple of events to watch during afternoon trading. First will be the results announcement of the day's 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was strong, we could see the broader bond market improve and mortgage rates move slightly lower during afternoon trading. On the other hand, a lackluster interest, indicating a waning appetite for longer-term securities, may pressure bonds and lead to a slight upward revision to rates before the end of the day.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Next up is the 2:00 PM ET release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. The key points traders are looking for are discussions amongst Fed members about inflation, the future of the employment sector, and how tariffs may affect the Fed’s plans for key short-term interest rates. However, it is very important to remember that this meeting took place before the surprisingly weak July Employment report was released and before last week’s inflation indexes were posted. Those events likely altered the thought process for some Fed members, but won’t mean anything until next month’s FOMC meeting. The markets are currently predicting the Fed will cut short-term rates a quarter point next month despite what last week’s data told us. In other words, what the minutes show is likely outdated and unreliable now. If they do reveal something unexpected, any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours Wednesday.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Thursday morning has the weekly unemployment update along with two monthly economic reports set for release. One is July's Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. This report gives us detailed insight into the housing sector. It covers a high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts. It is expected to show little change from June's sales, meaning the housing sector was flat last month. A weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Accordingly, good news for rates would be a noticeable decline in sales.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The week’s final release is July's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), also at 10:00 AM Thursday. This Conference Board index attempts to predict future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline from June's reading, meaning the indicators are pointing towards slightly weaker economic activity over the next several months. A larger decline would be favorable news for mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Fed Talk

Also worth noting is the annual Jackson Hole Fed conference that begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend. This is where the world's central bankers meet to discuss economic and geo-financial conditions. There have been major headlines to come out of this event in the past while others have been non-factors. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at 10:00 AM Friday, which will be watched very closely. The best chance of seeing a reaction is Friday morning, but there is the potential for the markets to react either Thursday or Friday. Key topics are the global economy, the direction of inflation and the Fed's monetary policy plans (reducing key rates).

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Unknown

none

Overall, no single day stands out as likely to be the most active for rates, but Friday has the potential to do so because Chairman Powell is speaking and he is doing so after some surprising economic data recently. That said, Wednesday afternoon's Fed minutes release has the potential to draw a reaction also. The calmest day of the week may be Tuesday unless something unexpected happens.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Fed Talk

none

Float / Lock Recommendation